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A night at the movies

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Politics again. UK-EU "negotiations" continue through briefings and leaks. Media reports suggest that, like an Austen Power's movie villain, the EU's Juncker wants to hold the UK ransom for a hundred billion euros. It might be classed as entertainment, if it did not have the potential to impact the world's largest economy.
  • In the US, Trumpcare II, the return of Trumpcare continues to dominate the political agenda. A failure here would leave investors questioning the president's political capital on Capitol Hill, and with that the ability to pass other key pieces of legislation.
  • The Federal Reserve meeting concludes today, but this is seen more as marking time than coming up with policy initiatives. Tightening monetary policy is expected later this year, and it seems unlikely that an announcement on tightening quantitative policy will be made yet.
  • The Euro area offers GDP growth, which is expected to be trend-like in aggregate (the issue for the Euro area is the divergence beneath the surface). Euro area producer price inflation should give some signals as to corporate pricing power.