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When, where, how to tighten?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The minutes of the US Federal Reserve are due for release today. Investors are expecting a monetary policy tightening in June. The uncertainty lies in how the Fed will tighten quantitative policy in the second half of this year. The New York Fed has been suggesting that the Fed’s balance sheet will remain sizeable. 
  • One of the credit rating agencies – no one cares which one – lowered China’s credit rating from something to something else – no one cares what. There was a flicker of interest in Asian markets (an unusual reaction to a credit rating agency move), but there is no real new information.
  • A German consumer confidence opinion poll is due in the wake of further evidence that business sentiment is floating away from reality. The ECB’s Praet is to speak – ECB speakers’ comments are worth more attention than normal, as members of the central bank try to wean ECB President Draghi off easing.
  • US President Trump’s budget proposal was as expected. Congressional opposition to Trump’s budget proposal is as expected. The president’s standing in Washington suggests little progress will be made.