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Political power and economic reality

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US Congress has agreed to a budget deal (not favoring many of President Trump's projects), and now attention shifts to Trumpcare II (the return of the healthcare debate). The president has indicated he expects to win a vote this week. Markets will be looking to see the extent of presidential influence on Capitol Hill.
  • The US ISM weakened yesterday. This is a mean reversion of a sentiment opinion poll from a position of overreaction to economic reality. This is not a useful comment on economic reality.
  • In a galaxy far, far away, the UK and the EU have not got off to the best of starts in negotiating the UK's rebellion from the Empire. News of UK PM May's dinner with Juncker (one of the many EU presidents) inexplicably found its way into the German media. Posturing was to be expected, but this may make negotiations harder.
  • More sentiment data is due from the EU, with the final April manufacturing PMI figures. The problem is no one can be bothered to fill in surveys anymore, so almost by definition survey respondents are not normal.