Follow Paul Donovan

Welcome to Salem

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • What happens in Brazil, stays in Brazil (probably). The problems of the Brazilian president are domestic in nature, and there is no real economic reason for contagion to other emerging markets. US politics has a more global impact, of course, with the rhetoric being ramped up about the "witch hunt" or "independent investigation".
  • The renegotiation of NAFTA was formally initiated with Congress being informed that discussions start in August. There is, inevitably, uncertainty about the outcomes. Presidential power over trade is near absolute when destructive, and substantially limited when constructive; the president can tear up trade agreements, but negotiating a new deal needs Senate approval.
  • German producer price inflation was slightly stronger than expected – as evidence of rising pricing power by German companies, and a possible response to the tightness of the labor market and its impact on cost pressures. Of course, this is but one divergent province in the disparate Euro empire.
  • The Fed's Bullard speaks, but Fed policy has been rather under-Tweeted about recently. The idea of a rate rise next month has fluctuated with the data, but the hard data remains good and the soft data is largely meaningless noise.