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Fake news flags

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • More political noise in the US. No doubt the words "fake news" will appear on the Trump Twitter feed shortly. This is a flag waving a warning at investors. If Washington is focusing on the Russian question, security or presidential behavior, then Washington is not looking at legislation on tax, trade, or Trumpcare II.
  • The New York Empire State manufacturing opinion poll weakened yesterday. Great care is needed in interpretation. Sentiment data overreacted wildly to the upside, and is now correcting to reflect reality. The upside was not a good guide to economic activity. The correction is not a good guide to economic activity.
  • US industrial production data is due, offering some insights into what is actually happening in the economy. The data is a volume indicator, and so should be free of the noise created by volatile oil prices and the movements of the US dollar.
  • The French offer final CPI, which is unlikely to excite too much interest. The UK inflation data suite is more worthy of attention. There is uncertainty over Bank of England policy (not helped by the gaps on the monetary policy committee), and uncertainty over the UK consumers' behavior.