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Thinking beyond the safe-haven reaction

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US missile strike on Syria has created a (probably temporary) flight to safe-haven assets and a small rise in the oil price. Investors should consider whether this signals a more global US policy, and whether Middle Eastern investors' attitudes to the US may alter.
  • US President Trump shook hands with Chinese President Xi (apparently they are friends now). However, the meetings have yet to produce anything that the US president can tweet about.
  • The US employment report is due; the trends of the last year are likely to be repeated. The US is at full employment, with increasing wages. While markets will react (traders have to do something to justify their existence), it is unlikely that the Fed outlook will alter on today's numbers.
  • German trade data is due, which is important because it has become politically important. German trade surpluses have been a source of tension within the Eurozone, and they are also creating strains with the US. Bank of England Governor Carney is also scheduled to speak.