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Trading politics, and the politics of trade

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The French presidential debate tonight offers a crowded stage, with less examination of policy details. Macron is being cast as the "candidate to beat". Much is made of the commitment of Le Pen's supporters in this election, but that is open to two possible interpretations.
  • The US trade balance is due for release. The Trump administration has dragged this figure from the deserved obscurity of recent years into a place of some prominence. Ahead of the meeting between Chinese President Xi and US President Trump on Thursday, this number may raise tensions.
  • ECB President Draghi speaks, and may well use the (Easter related) moderation of inflation in the Eurozone as part of a defense of his addiction to easing. It is unlikely that we will get any insight into the timing of the quantitative policy tightening that most economists agree is justified.
  • One of the credit rating agencies – it does not matter which – cut South Africa's credit rating below investment grade after recent political developments. The move was anticipated by markets (credit rating agency actions normally are), but it does have a bearing on the universe of investors who can invest in the country.