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On the campaign trail

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Yesterday in the US, Trump indicated his desire to run for president, offering some campaign slogans on tax reform. The problem for investors is that Trump is already president, and what investors wanted from the head of the executive branch of government was a program for tax reform rather than campaign slogans.
  • The European Central Bank meets, with some speculation in markets about a change. Clearly policy is unlikely to change (as ECB President Draghi has yet to tackle his addiction to easing), but there is talk of a change in the language (an unusual move in the middle of the French presidential campaign).
  • Euro area economic fundamentals continue to perform reasonably well. The inflation story is in evidence today. Last month's consumer price inflation was affected by the timing of the Easter holiday, which pushed inflation rates lower. This process should reverse in the German and Spanish data today.
  • Consumer confidence data is due from the Euro area and Germany (the latter may be taken as an early lead indicator for the general election in September). The US gives us durable goods orders data.