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100 days of trade

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Chinese President Xi and US President Trump have agreed on a 100-day program to discuss trade issues. Markets have embraced this with optimism, putting aside all thoughts of trade wars. However, Trump did tweet that "only time will tell" on trade policy, which may caution against too much exuberance.
  • US Federal Reserve Chair Yellen speaks today. Friday's weather-softened employment report is unlikely to affect the tone. The US is clearly at full employment, and the Fed is clearly not ahead of the curve in tackling inflation. Quantitative policy may be more in focus than where interest rates are going.
  • French opinion polls have indicated a four-way race for the presidency, with the far-left candidate gaining ground. The top four candidates are within the margin of error of one another. Markets should have learned the importance of the margin of error from the UK referendum and the Dutch election.
  • Greek consumer price inflation is due and is expected to be subdued but positive. However, the domestic Greek economy is of limited concern to investors. Now that another deal has been done on the bailout, Greece is likely to recede as a concern for markets.