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Triple tightening?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US Fed Chair Yellen had the opportunity to change market expectations about an interest rate increase at next week's FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Yellen chose not to change market expectations. A March rate increase (of 0.25%) looks probable, with a further couple of rate hikes over the remainder of the year.
  • US President Trump's Twitter feed was active over the weekend, suggesting interference in the recent election (not from Russia but from former President Obama). There are some signs of deteriorating relations with Republican members of Congress – Congress is needed for the market-friendly parts of the policy agenda – and that's relevant to markets.
  • Greek "final" GDP data for the end of 2016 limps out onto the global data calendar. The preliminary data showed negative growth – meaning, of course, that despite the considerable achievement of running a primary surplus, the Greek government still faces rising debt ratios.
  • Bank of England Chief Economist Haldane and Deputy Governor Hogg are both due to speak. With some signs that the effects of sterling's weakness are more visible in consumer price inflation, the question of when UK policy should be tightened is more open.