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A new hope?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • There was a range of opinion from US Federal Reserve speakers yesterday, allowing the discerning investor to choose the interest rate projection that best suits their personal prejudice. The idea of tightening central bank policy is firmly established, it is just a case of how much to tighten.
  • There are media reports that there may be an attempt to revive the Trumpcare healthcare proposals. Healthcare stocks moved, but so far investors seem to be skeptical. A revival of the plan would delay other legislation, which might worry markets and cause a more discernible reaction.
  • Spanish and German consumer price inflation figures for March come out today. Both are expected to retreat a little from their recent highs on consensus forecasts, although the higher inflation story remains intact. Euro area inflation measures have tended to surprise positively this year.
  • The UK's long goodbye from the EU has begun. UK PM May's letter warned that fear is the path to the dark side – fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to less security cooperation and diminishes global free trade. Discussions about how to discuss the discussions now commence.