Follow Paul Donovan

No economics. Therefore politics

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • There is very little on the data calendar – the US Conference Board's consumer confidence opinion poll is the main item. Politics does influence such data; the Trumpcare failure is too recent to have impacted these numbers, but general political disquiet will battle it out with economic improvements for control of the indicator.
  • Today is the last day before the UK files for divorce from the EU. Media reports suggest the German government may take a harder line. There is a risk of more noise like this in the future; each EU state could potentially veto a deal.
  • The Trump Twitter feed was active overnight, but not in a way that markets care about. Trade protection must be the immediate concern; this is a policy area where the president has more independence of action. Trump's history as a business person probably increases rather than reduces trade risks.
  • Yesterday's German Ifo opinion poll on business sentiment was strong, but the levels of such surveys need to be interpreted with considerable caution. However, to the extent that there is a relationship with politics, investors may try to interpret improving confidence in the context of the September federal election.