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Three votes and a miss

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The consequences of the failure to vote on the US Trumpcare package of healthcare reforms will continue to be assessed. Abandoning the pledge to reform healthcare prevents the issue from clogging Congress, but tax reform may prove to be just as complicated (even with the full resources of Twitter at the president's disposal).
  • The German state of Saarland voted in regional elections, with Chancellor Merkel's CDU doing better than expected. German local elections are often governed by local issues, so caution is needed in interpreting this at a federal level. However, the failure of opinion polls when turnout is high was on display again.
  • The consequences for the US president's policy agenda of Friday's failure and the broader implications of Sunday's German vote have given strength to the euro. Political risk hits the dollar harder than the euro, because the US is dependent on international inflows to support its currency.
  • China's chosen candidate, Carrie Lam, won the electoral college vote for Hong Kong's chief executive (whether Lam would have won the popular vote is doubtful).  Bulgaria's general election result is due later today, but the prime minister is claiming victory.