Follow Paul Donovan

Trumpcare and timing

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US House of Representatives is supposed to vote on the Trumpcare healthcare measures today (delayed from yesterday). Investors care about this as a signal of US President Trump's ability to turn Tweets into legislative action and as something that will influence the timing of other key legislative proposals.
  • This weekend the EU leaders (not the UK) gather to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. For investors, the focus is on unity against the British and the long-term direction of Europe. German finance minister Schaueble has suggested an "ever closer union" can be disposed of.
  • Opinion poll data comes out with the purchasing manager readings on business sentiment. One of the many problems with this sort of data is that no one takes surveys seriously anymore. Add in the influence of media sensationalism and these indices tend to wildly overreact to underlying fundamentals.
  • New York Fed President Dudley speaks, as the Fed seems to be debating quantitative policy intensely. Durable goods orders data gives some hint as to capital spending - but this is no longer really fit for purpose. Structural change undermines the relevance of the economic signals from these numbers