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All the fun of the Fed

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Investors have moved on from US President Trump's speech to Congress (how quickly they forget) and are focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting. Fed member Brainard used the word "soon" to describe a rate hike – in the Fed minutes "soon" equated to "June". Now "soon" is being interpreted as "March".
  • The Fed's Beige Book of anecdotal evidence indicated a stable economy, with a tight labour market and wage pressures. Wages may drive future inflation higher. The tight labour market raises a question about Trump's plans to bring back "millions" of jobs to build his gleaming railways – who will fill said jobs?
  • Politics is back in financial markets. French presidential candidate Fillon is under formal judicial investigation, and has lost support. Markets care about the impact on the election prospects of Le Pen. US Attorney General Sessions faces calls to quit over Russian contacts, though this is less directly market relevant.
  • Euro area producer and consumer price inflation are due. The former is more relevant to corporate pricing power, while the headline version of the latter is the ECB's target. With Euro area inflation generally surprising to the upside, the data today is very likely to come in above the ECB's target.