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Independent thought

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The declaration of the UK's long goodbye to the EU has apparently been delayed to avoid entanglement with the declaration that the Scottish first minister hopes to say goodbye to the UK. Economically, an important issue around Scottish independence is what happens to the monetary union (monetary unions without fiscal unions rarely work well. See Euro area for details).
  • Ahead of the US Federal Reserve decision, there is the NFIB small business opinion poll survey and producer price inflation. The former should be significant (small businesses dominate the US economy), but has shown a tendency to be politically influenced. The latter gives a sense of corporate pricing power.
  • German final consumer price inflation does not offer much hope of a surprise, but reinforces the fact of an inflation rate above target. The ZEW economic sentiment indicator is also due.
  • Chinese economic data showed reasonable economic activity at the start of the year; conventionally, economists aggregate January and February data to avoid the distortions of the Lunar New Year. No one should be surprised that Chinese economic data offers few surprises, given the political desire for economic stability.