Follow Paul Donovan

Minute by minute

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The minutes of the last US Federal Reserve policy meeting are due - a cause of much excitement for economists. The tone is likely to match Fed Chair Yellen's Congressional testimony. We do not see a March rate increase, but the quantitative versus monetary policy tightening debate may become clearer.
  • The Trump administration is tightening conditions for US illegal immigrants. There are two broad investment implications. This affects sectors that directly or indirectly depend on the labor or consumption of such workers. This signals Trump's campaign pledges are being pursued, raising questions about whether pledges on trade will also be honored.
  • Euro area consumer price inflation ("final" data) is due, but it is the detail and not the aggregate that matters. Everyone (except perhaps ECB President Draghi) acknowledges rising Eurozone inflation. The question is whether some countries breach psychologically significant inflation rates at a time of extreme central bank accommodation.
  • Fourth quarter UK GDP is revised, with details of composition offered. The UK consumer has shown signs of weakening at the start of 2017, so momentum in late 2016 is of note. Two Bank of England deputy governors are scheduled to speak, following the governor's testimony to parliament yesterday.