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Opinion poll problems

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Euro area PMI opinion poll of business sentiment is due – influenced by political noise, media reporting, economic perceptions and perhaps a little bit of economic reality. Despite the tendency of the data to overreact, investors still focus on the numbers. Fake news is in fashion, it would seem.
  • French political opinion polls have had an influence on markets – showing rising support for Front National leader Le Pen. The predictions of French opinion polls were particularly bad during the party primaries, but the anti-establishment position of Le Pen makes investors sensitive to any news on this subject.
  • Greece's deadline for additional funding has come and gone (which is of no surprise). However, the EU negotiators are sounding closer to the IMF position and there is the prospect of ongoing talks, which is perhaps a little more positive than investors had assumed.
  • Central bankers crowd the world stage. Bank of England Governor Carney speaks to Parliament (and may comment on the recent turn in data). ECB President Draghi speaks, but ECB policy has been preannounced. The Fed has three speakers amid a growing debate about whether monetary or quantitative policy should be tightened.