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What is Trump signaling?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US President Trump's press conference yesterday offered little substance, but the signaling effect may matter to markets. This was a performance by "candidate Trump." If candidate Trump is back, the policies of candidate Trump may be back. There may also be questions about how candidate Trump works with Congress.
  • Congressional relations could become increasingly important to investors. Most of Trump's constructive policy proposals require Congressional approval. Most of Trump's destructive policy proposals do not require Congressional approval. How much collaboration there is with Congress could shape the overall tone of policy.
  • The ECB minutes demonstrated that things, indeed, change. The ECB signaled that it would not be too bothered about the rules when buying government bonds (implicitly, particularly when buying Italian government bonds). Under ECB President Draghi, the mantra seems to be "anything goes."
  • UK retail sales data may excite some interest. The UK consumer continues to be partially sheltered from the weakness of sterling (which is being absorbed in profit margins to some extent). However, labor market strength has not produced much wage acceleration. The degree of consumer resilience may signal the balance of these forces.