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A moment of sanity?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • After a week where Da Vinci paintings and Bitcoin bubbles have perhaps raised a question or two about the rational markets hypothesis, there is a possible moment of sanity with the US employment report. The data will not affect the US Federal Reserve's decision next week, but should show an economy in good health.
  • The employment report will also confirm that the forces of the US economy are unlikely to generate a trend rate of growth of 6%. That sort of growth is normally reserved for emerging markets catching up with their neighbors. That situation does not yet describe the US economy.
  • Japanese growth was revised higher (annualized) in the third quarter on stronger investment spending. The GDP deflator measure of inflation was not revised higher. Meanwhile, the politically sensitive issue of trade saw a stronger-than-expected Chinese surplus, and the German current account data is expected later today.
  • The indescribably tedious UK-EU EU-UK divorce negotiations continue, with the "deadline of deadlines" looming (though probably not a really firm deadline). One of the EU presidents – and at this stage does anyone really care which one? – is meeting UK Prime Minister May this morning.