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A somewhat dreary deadline of deadlines

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The pre-US employment report lull is perhaps made worse by anticipation of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Investors are almost unanimous in expecting a US rate hike next week, but there is a question about the course of policy in 2018.
  • This week is, of course, the EU's "Deadline of Deadlines" for divorcing the UK. It is all a bit like the Greek restructuring – deadlines are showered like confetti and always seem to be extended. Investors are unlikely to be interested in the tedium of negotiations, but no progress this month would probably result in a higher probability of a hard exit being priced.
  • Other events are unlikely to impact markets. Middle East reaction to Trump's Jerusalem statement was predictable. Euro GDP is due to be revised, and markets will ignore it. German coalition negotiations – the least crisis-like political crisis in the world – continue.
  • The bitcoin bubble continues, ahead of futures being introduced next week. These allow investors to bet against the bubble, but as bubbles are irrational that can be just as risky as betting in favor of a bubble. Abstinence is a better policy.