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Next phases

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The EU-UK divorce process should move to the next stage – where the details of the divorce are settled. The trade deal negotiations are the reverse of normal trade negotiations. This time two sides start from absolute unity and work out how far apart they wish to move.
  • The US tax plan has run into some obstacles, with some Republican senators indicating that they would like more pork in their barrels. US President Trump brought the full force of his political skills to bear, declaring the deal will be done. It probably will be done, but markets are not necessarily reassured by presidential assertions.
  • European trade data will likely be ignored by investors, unless it becomes a focus for the Trump Twitter Feed. US industrial production is due, and the growth here can be compared to President Trump's desire for 4% trend growth. The trend in production is unlikely to be supportive.
  • This is the last conventional morning comment of 2017. Next week's comments will look at some of the important investment questions (and, tempting the wrath of the fanatics, Bitcoin). Have as prosperous a new year as circumstances will allow and to everyone who has tuned in over the course of 2017, thank you for listening.