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Moore's law

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US Senate race in Alabama saw the defeat of Republican candidate Moore. This means that, from next year, the Republican majority in the Senate will fall to one (plus Vice President Pence's casting vote). Tax cuts should still pass but individual Republican senators have more leverage.
  • US consumer price inflation is released (and should continue to hover around its long-term average). The Fed meets and almost every economist on the planet is expecting a rate rise of 0.25% (how could so many economists possibly be wrong?). The question is what happens next year. We expect two or three rate increases. The Fed is not trying to squeeze pricing power but to maintain a balance.
  • UK employment data is due. What is not due (emphatically) is wage data. Average hourly earnings are not wages, especially in the UK where self-employment is significant. Discounting individual average hourly earnings with household CPI and calling it real wages is gross deception.
  • The Australians (who know a thing or two about mining) have commented on cryptocurrencies. The Reserve Bank of Australia is not a fan. The South Koreans have confirmed that they do not intend to ban bitcoin, but are looking to regulate exchanges.