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Trump's trade

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • China's trade data (released just as US President Trump arrives) offered few surprises. Trade has been a recurring theme of the US president's tour. Trump did urge China to sever all ties with North Korea, but is presumably grandstanding for a domestic US audience rather than a serious diplomatic proposition.
  • The gubernatorial election in North Virginia produced a Democrat victory. Ordinarily markets should not care. However, the margin of victory was greater than predicted, because the polarization of US politics appears to be motivating Democrats to vote. This may be relevant for the 2018 midterm elections, which investors should care about.
  • Kohn of the Bank of England speaks, in the wake of the recent reversal of the emergency rate hike. Whether further tightening is plausible in 2018 is a matter of debate. Survey evidence (treat with caution) suggests that UK wages are accelerating, owing to labor market shortages.
  • Merkel is due to speak as the economic advisers offer forecasts for 2018. Politics is probably more interesting to markets than economics. (Markets assume all is for the best in this best of all possible German economies). Concessions from the Greens and FDP suggest that the path to coalition negotiations is being eased.