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A changing context

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Why do economists care about prejudice and racism? It matters a great deal. In the fourth industrial revolution human capital will determine economic success. Demoralising or rejecting human capital through prejudice will damage long term growth and financial market performance. Promoting prejudice potentially makes it socially acceptable.
  • The US Federal Reserve's Beige Book released overnight continued to demonstrate an economy operating in a mid-cycle growth pattern. Tighter labour markets were reported, and there was some evidence of pricing pressure. This is consistent with a December Fed rate increase.
  • French and Euro area consumer price inflation are due, after mixed Spanish and German data. ECB policy is not really in question, although the ECB's Nott did call for an end to bond buying after September 2018. US personal income and spending data are due, along with the PCE deflator (the Fed's favoured inflation measure). This is currently 1.6% yoy, close to the twenty year average of 1.8%.
  • UBS Wealth Management Chief Investment Office published the 2018 Outlook "A changing context". Although growth is essentially stable, there are lots of other changes. Central bank policy tightening, technological change and sustainable investment are all part of the changing landscape. See www.ubs.com/cio for details.