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Gainful employment?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • It is US employment report Friday. Noise from natural disasters makes this data harder to interpret. Natural disasters affect lower-wage workers more severely than higher-wage workers. Structural changes in the labor market also reduce the value of the data, both in terms of employment and earnings. 
  • The Bank of England's rate increase yesterday is not a dramatic change. Mortgage rates will move, but less than a quarter of UK households have a mortgage. Meanwhile, we hear from Nowotny of the ECB today – it seems unlikely Draghi's dovishness will be completely matched. 
  • US House Republicans proposed tax reduction plans – but investors need not pay too much attention. It is the Senate that is likely to lead this process. The NFIB small business lobby group does not like the proposals. That dislike may taint their business sentiment survey results in the future. 
  • Less seriously the crypto-currency bubble continues (there is normally a pause between a bubble being identified and a bubble bursting). Unless the financial sector is involved in a bubble, the economic impact is mainly about wealth effects. Wealth is transferred from the many to the few as a bubble builds.