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Let the trading of horses and barreling of pork commence

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Chancellor Merkel's self-imposed deadline to conclude talks about talks about the coalition government is tomorrow. Investors might want to see progress, as if the talks about talks do not conclude successfully there will be no talks, and no coalition.
  • US Republicans in the Senate have already lost one vote for the proposed tax plan. The inclusion of changes to Obamacare is likely to deny the plan Democrat support. The Republican's perilous Senate majority therefore seems more perilous. However, this is just the start of the horse trading and pork barrel process.
  • Convoys of central bankers are appearing. The Bank of England is travelling as a pack, with six speakers (in Liverpool). The US Federal Reserve has four speakers and the ECB has two. Listening to economic speeches is always interesting and exciting, but markets are fairly firm in their view on the paths central banks will take.
  • French unemployment data is due, and is more a politically important than an economically important statistic. The US Philly Fed opinion poll of business sentiment can be dismissed. Import and export prices and US industrial production all speak to the great "Make America Great" agenda, albeit not in a readily tweetable form.