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A possible anti-US trade deal?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US President Trump suggested that the WTO is not fair to the United States. No one is really interested. APEC has made progress towards a TPP deal. Because the TPP is a preferential trade deal, it will raise trade barriers against those outside the deal. The (voluntary) exclusion of the US means TPP could be an anti-US agreement.
  • EU-UK, UK-EU divorce talks continue. The EU is suggesting a cash offer is needed this month, and media reports that the UK government may do so. However, leaked documents propose Northern Ireland remain in the customs union, with a border to the rest of the UK – which is unlikely to be accepted.
  • French, Italian and UK industrial production are due – none very interesting (as none of the countries are that manufacturing focused). The numbers may allow media comparisons of relative economic performance to be made – with complete disregard to the accuracy of the data.
  • The US is offering Michigan consumer sentiment numbers. Although prone to overreaction, like most sentiment data, the numbers are sometimes taken as a signal of political trends. In a more polarized United States, it is debatable whether positive sentiment on the economy will translate into political support.