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Fiscal and monetary policy

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Republicans in the US House of Representatives have delayed an announcement of a tax cut plan, as they have been unable to agree on details. The importance of having some policy win ahead of the November 2018 mid-term elections means tax cuts are likely, although the final bill will more likely resemble Senate than House proposals.
  • The US Federal Reserve is expected to do nothing at the conclusion of today's meeting. A rate increase is expected in December, and the process of destroying billions of dollars of US money supply is already underway. Markets remain uncertain about who the next Fed chair will be.
  • The US ISM opinion poll on manufacturing sentiment is due. Since 2010, the ISM output measure's correlation with manufacturing output has been negative. The ISM inventory correlation with inventories has been negative. The ISM employment correlation with manufacturing employment has been negative.
  • The UK BRC shop price index showed ongoing (marginal) deflation in goods prices. This deflationary bias mitigates the costs of a weaker sterling for the UK consumer. The UK government is indicating possible concessions over the divorce settlement with the EU.