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Inflation and politics

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US personal income expenditure deflator is due. As the Fed's favored inflation measure, the release of this data is a matter of much excitement. Over the past twenty years, the headline measure has averaged 1.8% y/y. Today's number is expected to be 1.6% y/y. Income and consumption data may be impacted by recent natural disasters.
  • Spain and Germany release consumer price inflation, with both numbers probably hitting the ECB's rather vague target of "a bit below 2%, sort of". There is also the release of sentiment data for the Euro area, but this is an irrelevance that need not concern investors.
  • Spanish politics is on the agenda, as Catalan separatists claim independence and the Spanish government imposes direct rule. Meanwhile, economic life continues (although the weekend's pro-unity rallies in Barcelona may perhaps have disrupted consumer spending a little).
  • US politics is on the agenda, as the subjects of criminal charges in the Russian affair are expected to be announced today. Markets are only likely to get agitated if the prosecutions are seen coming close to the president. The Trump Twitter feed was somewhat agitated over the weekend.