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A conga line with consequences

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Today the Chinese Communist Party Congress will see a conga line of leaders dance onto the stage. The ordering is viewed by China watchers as a potential indicator of who the next president will be. However, President Xi's control of the levers of power is likely to endure. Next month's economic conference gives better opportunities to discuss policy changes.
  • #Fakeeconomics is due today. Assorted business sentiment opinion polls are scheduled. The trend of correlation between these numbers and reality is declining. Investors should ask themselves "when did I last voluntarily fill in a survey?" before placing faith in survey evidence.
  • The Catalan situation continues to provide political noise in Europe as Madrid attempts to impose direct control. However, aside from the risk of deposit flight (within Spain), the economic consequences are muted. There may be some disruption to labor markets from protests, and possibly some delay or relocation of investment.
  • US President Trump continued his fan dance, teasing the markets with the possibility of announcing a new nominee for the Fed chair really, really soon. The advice and consent of the Senate is required.  The Senate has not necessarily been as cooperative as the president might have hoped.