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Trump teases

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US President Trump is conducting a central banking dance of the five veils – teasing that the next Fed chair would be one of five. Cohn (never worked for a central bank) and Taylor (rigid rules amid structural change) would provoke the greatest market reaction. Powell and Yellen would be competent continuity. Warsh would be a shift of tone.
  • NAFTA negotiations are not going that well, with the discussions resolving into the US versus Canada and Mexico. A US exit from NAFTA is not being discussed, yet. Were that to happen lower-income Americans would be most affected by the ensuing increase in prices.
  • Chinese President Xi opened the party congress with a vision of a "beautiful China" (China already has a big, beautiful wall). China's economic strategy will be detailed after November's economic conference. China's economic challenge is that the successful model of the last twenty years will not work in the next twenty years.
  • UK labor data is the main release today. It will not change the Bank of England's determination to tighten policy. Some may be tempted to subtract yesterday's 3% inflation from average earnings to approximate real living standards. This is #fakeeconomics, ignoring labor market composition and self-employment.