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Irrationality wins

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Nobel Prize for economics was, unaccountably, not awarded for providing acerbic daily comment on economic matters. Instead, the prize was awarded to the behavioral economist Thaler for work on irrationality (amongst other things). UBS's series of interviews with Nobel Laureates, as well as how their work applies to today's world, is available at www.ubs.com/nobel.
  • With no link to irrationality whatsoever, the UK and the EU spent yesterday arguing about balls. The British say the ball is in the EU's court. The EU says the ball is the British court.  The British government explained what "no deal is better than a bad deal" means.
  • Economic data is generally second tier. Industrial production data from France, Italy and the UK is due. The UK year-on-year growth rate lags that of the EU, but this is in part due to base effects (the UK had stronger production in 2016 when the EU did not).
  • The NFIB small business opinion poll is due in the US. Investors have a tendency to irrationally regard this as useful data. Kashkari of the Federal Reserve is scheduled to speak.