Follow Paul Donovan

The struggle to find workers

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US employment report today is not projected to offer anything especially unusual. However, with the US at full employment, there may be problems finding workers to fill some vacant positions, so a lower payrolls figure could be a sign of a stronger labor market, not a weaker labor market.
  • The minutes of the US Federal Reserve may be a reason not to get too excited about small moves in data. Employment clearly matters but the minutes suggested that fiscal policy is a risk to central bank policy. The volatility of the Trump Twitter feed may outweigh the volatility of economic variables.
  • The UK offers unit labor cost data. This has a bearing on domestic inflation pressures. The more important signal from this data ahead of the EU exit is the UK's economic competitiveness. Nevertheless, markets will probably overlook the figures and fixate on the political soap opera instead.
  • The Euro area offers sentiment opinion polls for the business and consumer sectors. The problem with sentiment is that media influences sentiment. As the media has become more inclined to sensationalism in reporting, sentiment data has become more volatile and less reliable relative to reality.