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Reading UBS research

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • It is almost as if the US President-elect is reading UBS research. Trump tweeted his view that the US dollar is overvalued. UBS agrees that the US dollar is overvalued. The uncertainty created by Trump's tweets may add to the US dollar's woes, as uncertainty may lead to a 'wait and see' approach to investing in the US.
  • Uncertainty about the UK may have diminished somewhat is the wake of Prime Minister May's remarks yesterday. There was a little ?more conciliation than anticipated in the tone of the speech. Sterling, accordingly, has improved a little.
  • Europe's response to the UK stance will take time to emerge, but one of Europe's many presidents (Tusk) speaks today. Final German consumer price inflation is due. This surprised quite significantly on the upside in the initial release, so revisions are worth watching.
  • US Fed Chair Yellen is due to speak. However, it is hard to know what new information can be added ahead of the new administration taking office. We know the Fed is now both data and fiscal policy dependent in its policy decisions, and the latter remains unclear.