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A European accent today

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US has a public holiday marking its inability to spell the word "labour" correctly. The US labor market data from last Friday was probably influenced by seasonal adjustment, but the trend is one of notable improvement this year (comparing 3Q payrolls to the first half average).
  • The G20 summit's list of accomplishments is short to the point of non-existence. Chancellor Merkel of Germany was probably glad to be away for the weekend; her party was overtaken by the anti-EU AfD in her home state's local elections. Some may extrapolate from this into a wider anti-EU sentiment.
  • UK service sector sentiment should show a rebound from the post referendum induced lows. Sentiment data always tends to overreact. More details of the government's EU exit strategy are due to be revealed in Parliament today.
  • Eurozone service and overall sentiment data should continue to indicate moderate economic expansion, though politics does present something of a risk (to the sentiment figures, more than to the underlying economy at this stage).