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Growth is not synchronized. Inaccuracy is.

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Euro area consumer price inflation will show the early stages of oil effects fading; the numbers should rise. German consumer prices were higher than expected yesterday. However, Euro area core inflation rates exhibit very low correlation, so inflation remains a local affair.
  • German and UK "final" GDP are due, following the upward revision to US GDP yesterday. There is a global trend toward more revisions to economic data, and for those revisions to be larger. 
  • Mexico raised interest rates yesterday following a relatively prolonged period of weakness for the peso. Having a currency influenced by the whims of the US electorate and opinion polls cannot be fun. The central bank insists that this is not the start of a tightening trend.
  • Japan's data deluge was not terribly good. Household spending and unemployment disappointed, deflation persists. Industrial production was the only bright spot. Japanese consumers have high price inflation expectations and low wage inflation expectations, and so will not spend. Fiddling with Bank of Japan bond holdings is unlikely to change this.