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May the odds be ever in your favor

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The first US presidential debate gets underway – a spectator sport in much the same way gladiatorial games were spectator sports in Ancient Rome. Generally the perception is that the challenger has the advantage in the first debate.
  • The presidential debates matter to markets because the market implications of the election outcome are quite divergent. With polls tight, the debates are seen as important to the result. The debate offers an opportunity for the candidates to spell out their economic policies; of course that opportunity may not be taken.
  • The German ifo business sentiment index. A slowing of this index is not, despite the inevitable newswire comment, a slowing of growth. A slowing of this index represents a shift in sentiment, and that sentiment has a loose correlation to growth.
  • The UK has mortgage lending data from August (post referendum, coinciding with an interest rate cut). There is a smattering of central bank speakers, including the Bank of Japan's Haruhiko Kuroda – fresh from sowing confusion with his latest policy revamp.