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Yearning for Yellen

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The day of the Fed Chair's speech at Jackson Hole has finally arrived. The remarks come late in the European trading day. Yellen should signal some desire to continue policy tightening.
  • US inflation is normal. Policy is not normal. US labor markets are tight. Policy is loose. The Fed should be tightening further. However, Yellen's background as a labor economist may soften her tone.
  • Japanese consumer prices fell for the fifth month, as the yen pushed import prices lower. This could be a good thing for Japan, as it helps consumer real incomes.
  • The UK offers second quarter GDP. It is far too soon for this to say anything about the consequences of exiting the EU. The impact of that is likely to be felt later this year, and in trend growth.