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What data matters most?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US employment report Friday, when financial markets get excessively animated about an inaccurate number, which is frequently revised, and which (through aggregation) misses some very important nuances of an increasingly divided economy.
  • From a policy perspective the employment report has little immediate impact as the Fed has other excuses for delaying tightening. However the trends (rather than the monthly numbers) will give important information on the growing inflation threat in the US.
  • Consumer confidence in the UK collapsed in the wake of the referendum result, according to a special GfK survey (the largest fall since 1994, with both "leave" and "remain" voters more pessimistic). This may reflect the role of social media in shaping popular opinion.
  • Germany gives asylum numbers today. This is not an economic statistic of course, but it has a bearing on the political environment in Europe, and that political environment has a bearing on policy reactions in many areas, and policy has a bearing on markets.