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Policy prescriptions

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Policy responses are likely to be the focus for financial markets today. The Bank of England Governor's signal about the prospect of further policy accommodation has led sterling to weaken. This may feedback into a negative impulse for the UK consumer via food and fuel price inflation.
  • The US Federal Reserve published minutes from the meeting before the UK's referendum. Fed President Dudley eloquently stated the obvious – that if the situation got worse, it may be bad enough to impact the Fed. If it did not get worse, it probably would not.
  • The US Fed is caught in the horns of a dilemma. On the one hand, if there is financial contagion the global and domestic consequences would argue against a policy tightening. On the other hand the building inflation pressure domestically argues that the Fed may be behind the curve.
  • US service sector inflation from the ISM is due, which is about as domestically focused as it is possible to get (though still prone to overreaction to underlying fundamentals). Tarullo of the Fed is also scheduled to speak.