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Let the negotiations begin

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US is offering little by way of distraction today – Trump was nominated as Republican candidate formally yesterday, but his big speech is not until Thursday so markets are unlikely to pay too much attention to the convention before then.
  • The Turkish lira has weakened again and is now trading around the lows for the year. The positive move in the wake of the suppression of the coup attempt has dissipated. Some international governments have voiced concern about the scale of the ensuing arrests.
  • UK PM May is to meet German Chancellor Merkel. There is a conflict of interest over the timing of the UK's exit from the EU. It is in the UK's interest to get as much of a deal negotiated as is possible before article 50 is invoked. It is in the EU's interests to minimise uncertainty.
  • UK labour market data is a product of a bygone, more prosperous era and says little about the future. Unemployment is likely to rise as hiring stagnates in the future. German PPI inflation gives some insight into cost pressures and the impact of currency moves.