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Changing times

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Japan's GDP was unrevised and unremarkable (0.9% yoy, with a 0.9% deflator). If one were to search for positive news, bank lending growth is currently faster than nominal GDP growth – though where the bank lending ends up is a different story.
  • China's trade data showed stronger imports than had been expected. The reaction of financial markets tells us more about the state of investor sentiment in the current climate than it does about the state of the world economy.
  • UK industrial production is not likely to attract attention given the proximity of the referendum vote. Turnout is seen as an important variable in the referendum, and there has been a record increase in voter registrations (until the system broke down).
  • It is perhaps worth reflecting that regardless of the UK referendum outcome, just having the debate must be considered to have a bearing on the EU. The regular Pew survey of EU sentiment, published yesterday, has shown increased hostility to the EU in some key economies.