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Letting "I dare not" wait upon "I would"

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Economists remember, with a tinge of nostalgia, the era of Volcker as Chair of the US Federal Reserve – when central bankers knew what they believed and acted accordingly. Those days are long gone.
  • Fed Chair Yellen gave a speech that was billed as a "largely favourable" assessment of the economy, full of largely unfavourable risks. It was consistent with a September rate rise. Either political risk or the scarring experiences of 2008 seems to be creating an aversion to decisive central bank action.
  • German industrial production was a little stronger than expected, supported by domestic demand. Spanish production is not expected to be so robust – it is not just the inflation of the Euro area that diverges. Final GDP for the Euro area should show reasonable domestic demand.
  • US productivity data is due. Productivity is basically everything economists do not know about the economy packaged into one neat statistic – and the failure for productivity to be higher is causing much puzzlement.