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Refer to referenda

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Opinion polls have shown the "exit" vote increasing in support in the UK referendum on EU membership – though there is some dispute as to some polls' precise figures. Sterling has weakened.
  • The Swiss comprehensively rejected the idea of a guaranteed minimum income in their weekend referendum, with 77% against. The result itself is not a surprise, but the scale may dampen media enthusiasm for talk of populist uprisings.
  • The US employment report on Friday was weak on the headlines – but other economic data has led us to revise our US GDP forecast higher (from 1.5% to 1.7% for this year). With inflation at or above long term trends on most measures we see two rate hikes, in September and December.
  • There is very little data of note on the calendar today. However we do have several ECB speakers. The ECB minutes were more dovish in tone than expected (or, perhaps, than economic circumstances warranted) so the speakers may attract attention.