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Political risk

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The weekend's tragedy in the United States is likely to dominate the news cycle. The rapid politicisation of the event is something that has already been noted.
  • The UK's EU referendum made investors nervous last week. Opinion polls released over the weekend did not repeat the surge in support for the exit vote (two online polls showed basically a dead heat). However there is evidence that the message of economic costs to an exit is not being believed.
  • Chinese economic data indicated retail sales growth in excess of nominal GDP growth, suggesting a rising consumer share of GDP and (plausibly) a declining savings rate. Industrial production was also released in line with expectations.
  • We have revised down our Japanese GDP forecasts for the current fiscal year (started in March), from 1.3% to 0.7%. This reflects the delayed consumption tax hike, which means there will be no pre-hike surge in consumption this year. We see Japanese trend growth at 0.6%.