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Data does not dominate

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Dudley of the US Fed was suggesting he still saw the need for a couple of rate hikes this year (Evans speaks today). Meanwhile the Bank of Japan minutes showed concern that negative rates may be creating unrealistic expectations of easing.
  • Forest fires in Canada have led to an increase in the oil price, as Canadian oil production is threatened. Note that typically less than half the decline in the crude oil price was reflected in consumer oil price disinflation in 2015.
  • The London mayoral election saw a significant increase in voter turnout compared to 2012, suggesting that Londoners may be feeling politically engaged. This may prove important ahead of the June EU referendum, as opinion polls suggest London to be the most pro-EU part of the country.
  • Greece is in the news as the IMF and Eurogroup decide on whether additional financial assistance is forthcoming. Greece has passed additional fiscal tightening measures, but the IMF has been suggesting "contingent" fiscal tightening may be required "in case" Greece misses its fiscal targets.