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Signals and central bank speak

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • UK local elections. Not normally a central focus for investors, but most commentators agree that turnout is likely to be an important factor in determining the June EU referendum. A better turnout today may indicate higher levels of political engagement that could carry into the June vote (London's mayoral election may be important to watch).
  • Fed-speak from Bullard (an economist) and Kaplan (not an economist). The economist/non-economist distinction is significant as the former seem more inclined to look at the revised economic data, which is more positive, than do the latter.
  • China's services PMI moderated a little, but not enough to make it economically significant. Markets may overreact. It is true that service growth is important to the Chinese consumer story. It is also true that PMI data is not the most reliable of indicators.
  • Europe is relatively quiet. There is the ECB monthly bulletin, but even an economist is going to struggle to find much of interest in that, given that the coalition for easing policy seems to have fragmented in the wake of the March policy decision.