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Minute minutia excitement

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Fed minutes have signalled that June is a viable rate hike meeting. It is a finely balanced decision but we think September will be favoured (with more evidence of the improving growth). Nonetheless this is finally getting markets to pay attention to what economists are saying.
  • The Fed minutes did acknowledge the UK referendum as a market risk. One poll (yesterday) showed a 55%:37% yes (remain):no (leave) split. The larger than normal lead for "yes" came when undecided voters were asked to indicate their preference, showing the importance of the 'apathetic majority'.
  • ECB minutes are unlikely to offer the same level of excitement as those of the US Federal Reserve. The March policy decision showed the ECB's desire to raise bank lending and (via the de facto capital control of the TLTRO) tolerance of a stronger Euro. Nothing is likely to have changed since.
  • The data calendar is not especially interesting. We have UK retail sales (perhaps worth a glance in the context of the labour market?) and the Philly Fed business sentiment data.