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Inflation and polls

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • An Anglo Saxon day. US CPI inflation is due. This is not the Fed's target measure, but several reasons mean it is the measure that matters most to the bond market. Most CPI sub-indices have been running above their long term average rates.
  • Headline CPI (not running above its long term rate) should get a lift from oil base effects. Core inflation is not likely to be quite so affected (though oil is embedded in core CPI). This does not seem like an inflation environment compatible with sub 0.5% rates.
  • There are four Fed speakers on the agenda today – a range of economists and on-economists. The Fed has been fairly "on message" about interest rate increases in the coming months, it will be interesting to see if that continues with the range of speakers today.
  • UK CPI and other price data is rather subordinate to the prospect of the UK referendum on EU membership. The latest ICM polls showed a 4% lead for the exit ("no") vote in the online opinion poll, but an 8% lead for the remain ("yes") vote in the telephone opinion poll.